Apple Could Make $133 Billion a Year on Humanoid Robots by 2040: Morgan Stanley
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Investment firm Morgan Stanley believes that Apple could see what may become one of its most substantial new revenue streams by 2040: humanoid robots. In a newly released research note, analysts estimate that Apple’s robotics business could generate about $133 billion per year in a median case scenario, assuming it captures around 9 percent of the global robotics market.
According to the report, robotics is viewed as Apple’s next major platform, following the iPhone, iPad, Mac and Services ecosystem. The firm argues that Apple’s strength across hardware, software and silicon, combined with its installed base of over 2 billion devices, gives the company a unique launch pad into the “embodied AI” era.
Key forecasts and context:
The first step of Apple’s robotics push may involve simpler devices, for example a motorised tabletop hub expected around 2027, before full humanoid devices enter mass market.
Morgan Stanley projects Apple’s robotics segment hitting ~$130 billion in annual revenue by 2040 under a conservative scenario, with the potential to reach higher under more aggressive assumptions.
The global humanoid robot market is also expected to surge: Morgan Stanley projects it could reach $5 trillion annually by 2050, covering hardware, software, services and support.
Why this matters for Apple:
If the projection holds, the robotics business would surpass many of Apple’s existing product lines. For example, the Mac business currently generates about $29 billion yearly, while Services generated ~$96 billion in 2024. A $130 billion-plus robotics unit would rival the size of those segments and potentially become Apple’s second-largest business.
Challenges ahead:
Despite the bullish forecast, commercialisation of mass-market humanoid robots remains complex. Key hurdles include cost declines, technical maturity, safety and regulatory acceptance, and consumer adoption. Morgan Stanley emphasises that broad adoption may accelerate in the 2030s and 2040s rather than immediately.
What to watch:
- Apple’s hiring, patent filings and investment in robotics and embodied AI technologies
- Upcoming product signals from Apple in robotics, potentially starting around 2027
- Developments in the broader humanoid robot market, pricing trends, volume manufacturing, and competition from other tech firms
- How the robotics forecast influences Apple’s stock valuation, Morgan Stanley suggests the robotics opportunity could account for 10-25 percent of Apple’s current share-price potential.
